Stock market

kaiser715 said:
I wonder how much something like this 'correction' can be attributed to algorithmic trading? Computers doing all the thinking and transactions, no level-headed person saying "patience, patience, patience....".
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Definitely to some degree. I've also read the massive amount of unwinding of the shorting the volatility trade and rising 10 yr bond is pushing stocks down. I'm reading that the 10 yr bond could go to slightly over 3%, and if that is the case, then stocks will not recover until the 10 yr stops rising. I think the buying opportunity is coming soon.
 
Did you hear about these stupid fuckers that had six-figure shorts on UVXY??
 
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Todd Van Der Meid, MBA
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™
(704) 827-9000
www.rhinowealth.com
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Dear Rodney ,

After more than 18 months of the stock market hitting new record highs on a regular basis, the unstoppable stock market has hit a speed bump and is in the midst of a correction. During corrections it's important to keep perspective and focus on the underlying fundamentals of the stock market and the economy, which are pointing to the potential for continued growth.

As I have said in the past, in my opinion, the most powerful economic indicator is the monthly jobs number. If people have jobs, they spend money. The consumer drives 70% of our economy. So, what started the stock market to tumble? We got a stronger than expected January jobs report which showed rising wage pressures. It seems counterintuitive that a strong economic number would cause the market to correct, so let me explain.

The strong jobs number increased concerns about inflation and the possibility that the Federal Reserve might change its interest rate policy. It didn't help that this morning the Bank of England came out this morning and said they may have to raise rates faster and earlier than planned. For those old enough to remember, in the 80's we had high inflation and the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to nose bleed levels to fight it. Here's what can happen. As unemployment falls, employees are in the driver's seat and able to demand higher wages. Salaries make up the largest percentage of most businesses costs, which are typically passed on to the consumer in the form of higher prices which is inflation. The Federal Reserve steps in and raises interest rates to slow it all down. This is text book Economics 101.

Also, once again some thought they were smarter than everyone else and invested in complicated investment vehicles that blew up when the market went lower forcing more selling. Also, there is algorithmic based trading programs that triggered systematic selling as the market fell, adding more selling pressure. None of this has anything to do with the fundamentals of the economy.

What you need to know:
  • The S&P 500 closed today at 2581, right around where we were at Thanksgiving, which was higher than my 2017 year-end target of 2400.
  • We may go lower before this correction is over.
  • Bear markets occur during recessions not during economic expansions.
  • Unemployment is low and falling.
  • The yield on the 10yr treasury is still below 3%.
  • Inflation is currently only around 2%.
  • The yield curve is steepening, which is a sign of economic strength not weakness.
  • Corporate earnings are rising and beating estimates.
  • We recently had a tax cut; the effects haven't even started to be felt.
  • I am watching things closely. I do not think this is a systemic problem, the beginning of a bear market or a recession. In the coming days or weeks, I plan to rebalance portfolios, capture some taxable losses and reinvest at lower prices.

What you need to do:

For the past two years I have been encouraging everyone to take a Riskalyze questionnaire. If you're feeling anxious, it might be time to seriously revaluate your true risk tolerance and revisit the questionnaire. It only takes a few minutes and will help me dial in how your accounts should be invested. Your accounts are being managed to an investment objective that is closely tied to that risk number.
 
You guys are all like...How’s the DOW performing...and I’m over here like the 23yr pulled $500/bottle...the 24 year should pull $1000+/bottle. Just snagged 3 cases this afternoon...

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Fakebook down 124 BILLION in two hours.

Thankfully. I have none.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 
kaiser715 said:
Fakebook down 124 BILLION in two hours.

Thankfully. I have none.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
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<shrug>

It's the same price today that it was most of last year, and as recently as May 1. This, after it smoked after earnings last quarter.
 
Saw they were crying about the loss of visitors/ users, which cuts their Advertising Profits. I got sucked into looking at 1 Tire site about mid day. Now, Every other post & add show to me on FB, IS from a Tire Ad! Damn cookies!
 
RatLabGuy said:
wheeeeee
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I love it when my favorite things go on sale. I just wish I knew if there was going to be a another mark down tomorrow.
Its just like when all the gander mountains were closing.
10%..meh
15%off.meh
30% off....hrmmm
50% off....10 more % and Im loading up
70% son of a b.....all gone
 
Ain't worried about a couple of days...gotta look at the long haul...


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I'm Surprised How much the Market Rebounded in the last couple days! Hope my Financial Planner timed it right. Been selling off the past month, & just started Buying, about a week ago. Sell high, Buy low. I Hope!
 
Couple more little dips and minor fluctuations, then hang on for a rocket ride to DOW 30,000!!


(....I hope)

Buy, buy, buy.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 
Atla said:
I'd be pretty pleased if the evil Federal Reserve would stop jacking rates up to make Trump's economy look bad.
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If Trump wants to help the stock market, then he needs to STFU on Twitter about firing Jerome Powell.
 
Atla said:
Economics, with a strong dash of Capitalism.

You should try it.
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I lacked one credit having a minor in economics when I graduated and I run a business. I fully understand.

I also fully understand you're a kool-aid drinking idiot if you think minor increases in rates, that are long overdue, are the reason the stock market is correcting. The reserve rate has been too low for too long. Super low interest rates aren't sustainable.

drkelly said:
If Trump wants to help the stock market, then he needs to STFU on Twitter about firing Jerome Powell.
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Ding ding ding! Trump's tariffs and his mouth are hurting more than anything.
 
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awheelterd said:
I lacked one credit having a minor in economics when I graduated and I run a business. I fully understand.

I also fully understand you're a kool-aid drinking idiot if you think minor increases in rates, that are long overdue, are the reason the stock market is correcting. The reserve rate has been too low for too long. Super low interest rates aren't sustainable.
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Walter Williams knows more than you and he's always worth reading.

Dangers of Government Control, by Walter E.Williams

We are a nation of 325 million people. We have a bit of control over the behavior of our 535 elected representatives in Congress, the president and the vice president. But there are seven unelected people who have life-and-death control over our economy and hence our lives — the seven governors of the Federal Reserve Board. The Federal Reserve Board controls our money supply. Its governors are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate and serve 14-year staggered terms. They have the power to cripple an economy, as they did during the late 1920s and early 1930s. Their inept monetary policy threw the economy into the Great Depression, during which real output in the United States fell nearly 30 percent and the unemployment rate soared as high as nearly 25 percent.


The most often stated cause of the Great Depression is the October 1929 stock market crash. Little is further from the truth. The Great Depression was caused by a massive government failure led by the Federal Reserve's rapid 25 percent contraction of the money supply. The next government failure was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which increased U.S. tariffs by more than 50 percent. Those failures were compounded by President Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal legislation. Leftists love to praise New Deal interventionist legislation. But FDR's very own treasury secretary, Henry Morgenthau, saw the folly of the New Deal, writing: "We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. ... We have never made good on our promises. ... I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started ... and an enormous debt to boot!" The bottom line is that the Federal Reserve Board, the Smoot-Hawley tariffs and Roosevelt's New Deal policies turned what would have been a two, three- or four-year sharp downturn into a 16-year affair.
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If you think these seven Presidential Appointed Governors of the Federal Reserve do not have a political bias, you're head is buried rather deeply in the sand.

Eight years of Obama, one increase. Two years of Trump, eight increases. (It this not at all suspicious to you?)

Each time the interest rate is increased, the economy slows down. A large percent of Stock market trading is based of psychology, when interest rates go up, stock market goes down because less people will be borrowing or spending.

To me, it's pretty obvious they intentionally kept the rate low to help Obama's crap economy policies. (Mr. The Jobs Are Gone And They Ain't Coming Back!) Then when Trump destroyed Obamanomics with his Magic Wand, the economy booms - and the Federal rates conveniently shoot up EIGHT TIMES.

And interestingly enough, one of the biggest deciding factors for a Presidential Election... or Re-Election in this case... is always the Economy.

-sips kool aid-

Come at me, bro.
 
:shaking:
 
Atla said:
If you think these seven Presidential Appointed Governors of the Federal Reserve do not have a political bias, you're head is buried rather deeply in the sand.
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So, these 7 men. Who appointed each of them? (D or R?)
 
In response to your article, I never said the federal reserve was perfect. But if you're going to play the game you have to take the good with the bad. Rates are raised when it is deemed that the economy is strong enough to handle it. Its not some new conspiracy against your God emperor trump. The intended effect is to cool things off before they get out of hand. Increases are normal in a hot market. You don't want all the money tied up in the market, increased rates encourage saving. The Fed didnt raise rates under Obama as much because the market wasn't as strong. Not because they favored him. Wall Street people are the most excitable and skittish people there are. They check up some when rates go up, they're supposed to. Its not some big conspiracy against him like Trump and his followers claim.

The market reacted favorably to trumps election because of his business friendly attitude. Not his magic wand. His tariffs have hurt him. Pretty much all economist agree that tariffs are bad for the economy. Your guy Williams even says so. His twitter fingers hurt him and the stock market too. Those skittish investors like predictability. What he is going to post on twitter next is anything but predictable.

Does trump always get a fair shake by the media? Not by a long shot. I'm not for him or against him, I believe in calling a spade a spade though.
 
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