Stock market

Maybe we are propping up the agriculture sector during this trade war, I don't care about that as much in the short term.
China has been giving us the dick on trade for far too long and we may have to suffer short term to benefit long term.

Not only are these fuckers cheating the system (have been for long time) but they are our direct competitor for global resources and military presence.

Dont forget, they are also our biggest creditors......
 
I'm with Rush Limbaugh on this recession talk.

Pushback! Recession Talk Vanishes Because It’s Not True

A single indicator said we are entering a recession. The media took it, ran with it, and turned it into the fourth largest one day drop in the DOW.

Now we're climbing back up, because there isn't a recession. That's why no one is talking about it anymore.

Watch how this plays out during Election year.

I bet we'll see something similar again to try and convince voters that the economy is crumbling under Trumps policies.

The yield curve inversion has been a solid predictor of recessions for many years.
 
Ignoring any curves or talking heads, all you have to do is look around and see it is time for another correction. The best selling vehicles in the US are $60-100k SUVs and trucks, tract housing is being built faster than it can be bought up, and the stock market has been on an upward trend for 10 years. It's 2008 all over again, so I'm not sure why anyone is surprised.
 
Ignoring any curves or talking heads, all you have to do is look around and see it is time for another correction. The best selling vehicles in the US are $60-100k SUVs and trucks, tract housing is being built faster than it can be bought up, and the stock market has been on an upward trend for 10 years. It's 2008 all over again, so I'm not sure why anyone is surprised.

That's always been my 'strength of the economy' go/no go gauge: 1) What are people driving 2) What shelf at the liquor store is the emptiest 3) What food places have the fullest parking lots.
 
Outside of some international concerns, I really don't get the panic. Look at the numbers:

2016 -
Dow started at 17,000 and finished at 19,700
unemployment: 4.7%
GDP growth: 1.6%

2017 -
Dow started at 19,700 and finished at 25,200
unemployment: 4.1%
GDP growth: 2.4%

2018 -
Dow started at 25,200 and finished at 23,327
unemployment: 3.9%
GDP growth: 2.9%

2019 -
Dow started at 23,327 and is currently at 25,700.
unemployment: 3.6%
GDP growth in the first half of 2019: 3.1%

Outside of chicken little thinking, there really is no reason to expect 2019 will finish worse than any of the last three years. Yet, I expect it may happen because of politically based panic. Just look at the hashtag #TrumpRecession. It's crazy to me how people are fully endorsing trying to hurt this country just for a higher chance to get Trump out.

Unless I am mistaken, no recession in history has begun less than a year after sub 4.0 unemployment and a GDP above 3. In 2007, unemployment was 5% and GDP growth was 1.9% right before it started. Even in 9/11, unemployment was over 5 and GDP under 2% right before it happened. So any recession in the next 6-9 months would be unprecedented.
 
Outside of some international concerns, I really don't get the panic. Look at the numbers:

2016 -
Dow started at 17,000 and finished at 19,700
unemployment: 4.7%
GDP growth: 1.6%

2017 -
Dow started at 19,700 and finished at 25,200
unemployment: 4.1%
GDP growth: 2.4%

2018 -
Dow started at 25,200 and finished at 23,327
unemployment: 3.9%
GDP growth: 2.9%

2019 -
Dow started at 23,327 and is currently at 25,700.
unemployment: 3.6%
GDP growth in the first half of 2019: 3.1%

Outside of chicken little thinking, there really is no reason to expect 2019 will finish worse than any of the last three years. Yet, I expect it may happen because of politically based panic. Just look at the hashtag #TrumpRecession. It's crazy to me how people are fully endorsing trying to hurt this country just for a higher chance to get Trump out.

Unless I am mistaken, no recession in history has begun less than a year after sub 4.0 unemployment and a GDP above 3. In 2007, unemployment was 5% and GDP growth was 1.9% right before it started. Even in 9/11, unemployment was over 5 and GDP under 2% right before it happened. So any recession in the next 6-9 months would be unprecedented.

I agree that 2019 will finish off in the green. Everything I am reading and hearing at work (I work for a truck manufacturer) points to a recession in 2020-early 2021.
 
I agree that 2019 will finish off in the green. Everything I am reading and hearing at work (I work for a truck manufacturer) points to a recession in 2020-early 2021.
In a natural market I agree 100%.
The big variable to me is how much artificially manufactured hysteria may impact the market.
 
I haven’t read this whole thing. But anybody here day trade?

I’ve been scalping the ES for a while now with a respectable weekly paycheck. Pretty fun. Hit me up if you play. I’m always looking to learn.
 
I haven’t read this whole thing. But anybody here day trade?

I’ve been scalping the ES for a while now with a respectable weekly paycheck. Pretty fun. Hit me up if you play. I’m always looking to learn.

I don't, but I'd like to. You got any tips? From what I understand I can trade through my fidelity account but I have never actually jumped in.
 
I haven’t read this whole thing. But anybody here day trade?

I’ve been scalping the ES for a while now with a respectable weekly paycheck. Pretty fun. Hit me up if you play. I’m always looking to learn.

I have been thinking of it. Buddy is doing it on a very small scale. He has a "fund" of sorts of mostly small stocks that he's worked up, and it (almost) always lags a day behind the DOW. The Dow drops 1/2%, his list drops 1/2% in the next day or two. Dow rises 1/2%, then a day or two later, his lagging group follows. Use the Dow to pick your sales and buys. I've seen his numbers and spreadsheets, it appears to be working. Some fails, but more wins than fails, so there is something to it. I think there's about 20 stocks he jumps in and out of every day or three. I don't have his list (yet).
 
You got any tips?
Start reading now. Plan on starting to trade about a year from now.

It's literally one of the hardest things I've ever learned to do.

It's like fishing for money. The waiting, the waiting, the right lure, the right conditions, knowing how yesterdays weather affects where the fish are going today, the waiting, observe conditions, wait, observe conditions...Except now when you cast, and you don't pull out a fish, you have to throw a hundred dollar bill in the lake.

The few people that I've talked to about it...I say the first instructional lesson is to take a thousand dollars out and light it on fire. If you're emotionally ok with watching it burn to nothing of value, knowing that it's taught you the hardest lesson there is about day trading (which is mindset), you can start trading live money.
 
Proof that the stock market and investing as we know it is dead:

181 American CEOs say companies should now focus on 'improving society' rather than profits | Daily Mail Online

I hope some stuffed shirt CEOs get dragged over the coals at their next stockholder meetings.

I read that as they’re just spinning the context of what’s already being done with a favorable connotation. ‘Gender and racial equality’...read affirmative action. Invest in the community...read manufactured in China but now assembled in America. Political influence...read donations.
 
This kind of talk is advantageous to their bottom line and perceived shareholder value, so they aren't really saying anything new.

It's the opposite. If they're beholden to the shareholders, they can't virtue signal in ways that are contrary to the bottom line.
 
It's the opposite. If they're beholden to the shareholders, they can't virtue signal in ways that are contrary to the bottom line.
Chicken or egg?
 
It's the opposite. If they're beholden to the shareholders, they can't virtue signal in ways that are contrary to the bottom line.

I think this is ultimately what our match loving friend was getting at:

I read that as they’re just spinning the context of what’s already being done with a favorable connotation. ‘Gender and racial equality’...read affirmative action. Invest in the community...read manufactured in China but now assembled in America. Political influence...read donations.

It's not so much that they're going to operate in a fashion that will negatively impact the bottom line...they're just going to hire some high dollar PR firms to alter/refine public opinion. Instead of just taking that tax write off in silence...hey, look at the donation we made to this 501c...let that start trending on social media...tug on heart strings and yield more customers. Ultimately improving the bottom line, looking like great humanitarians and philanthropists, while doing things they would have done anyway.
 

Love all the prognosticators!

What I know, is half of them will be right and half will be wrong. And all of them will be right one day. The market will always go up. The market will always go down. Problem is, nobody knows when either will occur.

At the end of the day, nobody knows nothing.

Keep saving. Keep investing. You will be fine.
 
Meet Bob.

Bob is the world’s worst market timer.

What follows is Bob’s tale of terrible timing of his stock purchases.

Bob began his career in 1970 at age 22. He was a diligent saver and planner.

His plan was to save $2,000 a year during the 1970s and bump that amount up by $2,000 each decade until he could retire at age 65 by the end of 2013 (so $4,000/year in the 80s, $6,000/year in the 90s then $8,000/year until he retired).

He started out by saving the $2,000 a year in his bank account until he had $6,000 to invest by the end of 1972.

Bob’s problem as an investor was that he only had the courage to put his money to work in the market after a huge run-up.

So all of his money went into an S&P 500 index fund at the end of 1972 (I know there were no index funds in 1972, but just go with me here…see my assumptions at the bottom of the post).

The market dropped nearly 50% in 1973-74 so Bob basically put his money in at the peak of the market right before a crash.

Yet he did have one saving grace. Once he was in the market, he never sold his fund shares. He held on for dear life because he was too nervous about being wrong on both his sell decisions too.

Remember this decision because it’s a big one.

Bob didn’t feel comfortable about investing again until August of 1987 after another huge bull market. After 15 years of saving he had $46,000 to put to work. Again he put it in an S&P 500 index fund and again he invested at a market peak just before a crash.

This time the market lost more than 30% in short order right after Bob bought his index shares.

Timing wasn’t on Bob’s side so he continued to keep his money invested as he did before.

After the 1987 crash, Bob didn’t feel right about putting his future savings back into stocks until the tech bubble really ramped up at the end of 1999. He had another $68,000 of savings to put to work. This time his purchase at the end of December in 1999 was just before a 50%+ downturn that lasted until 2002.

This buy decision left Bob with some more scars but he decided to make one more big purchase with his savings before he retired.

The final investment was made in October of 2007 when he invested $64,000 which he had been saving since 2000. He rounded out his string of horrific market timing calls by buying right before another 50%+ crash from the credit blow-up.

After the financial crisis, he decided to continue to save his money in the bank (another $40,000) but kept his stock investments in the market until he retired at the end of 2013.

To recap, Bob was a terrible market timer with his only stock market purchases being made at the market peaks just before extreme losses.

Here are the purchase dates, the crashes that followed and the amount invested at each date:


Luckily, while Bob couldn’t time his buys, he never sold out of the market even once. He didn’t sell after the bear market of 1973-74 or the Black Monday in 1987 or the technology bust in 2000 or the financial crisis of 2007-09.

He never sold a single share.

So how did he do?

Even though he only bought at the very top of the market, Bob still ended up a millionaire with $1.1 million.

How could that be you might ask?

First of all Bob was a diligent saver and planned out his savings in advance. He never wavered on his savings goals and increased the amount he saved over time.

Second, he allowed his investments to compound through the decades by never selling out of the market over his 40+ years of investing. He gave himself a really long runway.

He did have to endure a huge psychological toll from seeing large losses and sticking with his long-term mindset, but I like to think Bob didn’t pay much attention to his portfolio statements over the years. He just continued to save and kept his head down.

And finally, he had a very simple and low-cost investment plan — one index fund with minimal costs.

Obviously, this story was for illustrative purposes and I wouldn’t recommend a portfolio consisting of 100% in stocks of a single market in the S&P 500 unless you have an extremely high risk tolerance. Even then a more balanced portfolio in different global markets with a sound rebalancing policy makes much more sense.

And if he would have simply dollar cost averaged into the market on an annual basis with his savings he would have ended up with much more money in the end (over $2.3 million).
 
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