Stock market

Andy J. said:
Our company stock took a 5% dive today. Further cuts, salary reductions, and unpaid leave are on the horizon.
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awheelterd said:
Consumer confidence is shot though and consumer spending makes up a good majority of our economy.
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Related - MD Governor said state revenue is down 50%. 50 fucking percent. Across the board hiring freeze, and get ready for cuts.
I hadn't really thought about what the lack of commerce would also do to State income until then.
the only hope is that there is a rocket recovery and people are spending like crazy, or 2021-22 is gonna suuuuuck for any kind of infrastructure.
 
I’m still sitting on my 2020 Roth contribution. I dunno whether to hold out to go in now. Seems like the market experts think it is back on the mend, but a lot of companies are still hurting and making deeper cuts to survive.
 
My guy started selling, back in Feb. He deals more in mutual funds, bonds, & such; not just stock market. Last week he started buying some. I seldom know or understand his process, just he makes me money. today, he bought some ETF Bonds.
 
Andy J. said:
I’m still sitting on my 2020 Roth contribution. I dunno whether to hold out to go in now. Seems like the market experts think it is back on the mend, but a lot of companies are still hurting and making deeper cuts to survive.
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Ditto on 2019 contributions ;-). Won't make my 2020s for awhile, unless some kind of magic happens.
Good thing about the tax extension is it also delayed the deadline for prior year IRAs.
 
I’m 50/50 in the severity of the whole virus situation as far as health goes. I lost a coworker, young healthy female to the swine flu and shit wasn’t even a blip on the radar. That said, I’m not insensitive to those who have lost people. So, I’m obeying the stay at home order but I’m pumping as much as I can into the economy both locally and in the market. Getting Uber eats, buying online goods, of course off-road parts for the new LJR I just bought among other things. There are plenty of ways to keep stimulating the economy in these times. But with new reports they may push this through May 30, I’ll be done at that point. People aren’t going to stay put much longer.
 
I think the markets have gotten ahead of themselves. I still believe they will go back down.
 
jeepinmatt said:
So maybe I'm living in a different world, but I feel like the viral risk has leveled out and things should soon start tapering back to normal.
America should be ready for 18 months of shutdowns in long hard road ahead warns the Feds Neel Kashkari - MarketWatch
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I should further clarify my thoughts on this. Financially we are just at the tip of the iceberg. The first round of repercussions has not even been felt yet. However 18 months of shutdowns due to virus outbreaks is completely illogical.
 
jeepinmatt said:
I should further clarify my thoughts on this. Financially we are just at the tip of the iceberg. The first round of repercussions has not even been felt yet. However 18 months of shutdowns due to virus outbreaks is completely illogical.
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I completely understand your point of view, and do understand where you are coming from.

But saying something is illogical in reference to a virus the world knows so little about is illogical in its self.

I believe making assumptions at this point about something we know very little about will only hurt the economy more so.

Things will get much worse before they get better, but I think going all in on mitigation of this virus will hurt the country as a whole less then repeating the last month over and over and over.
 
RatLabGuy said:
Ditto on 2019 contributions ;-). Won't make my 2020s for awhile, unless some kind of magic happens.
Good thing about the tax extension is it also delayed the deadline for prior year IRAs.
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TSP? If so, park it in the G fund for right now. Then shuffle the deck when ready.
 
BrianGreen said:
TSP? If so, park it in the G fund for right now. Then shuffle the deck when ready.
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This is for my wife. She dosn't get a job-related 401k :-(.
 
junkxj said:
But saying something is illogical in reference to a virus the world knows so little about is illogical in its self.
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I guess my point is we are not really shut down now, and the virus is already starting to crest after about 2 months, so why the heck would there be shutdowns in 18 months?
 
jeepinmatt said:
So maybe I'm living in a different world, but I feel like the viral risk has leveled out and things should soon start tapering back to normal.
America should be ready for 18 months of shutdowns in long hard road ahead warns the Feds Neel Kashkari - MarketWatch
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That is not what I have been expecting and hoping for. I think a return to normal by May 1st doesn't seem realistic, but 18 months of rolling shutdowns doesn't seem reasonable either. I was thinking a gradual return to normal over the months of June, July, and August is a reasonable plan. I am also glad to see the governors of adjoining states working together to develop a reopening plan. That seems extremely logical given that different areas of the country are going to peak and recover sooner than others.
 
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The slide back down could start today as the bad news begins to roll in.

Retail sales 4-15-20.jpg
 
Forgive my insensitivity to anyone who has lost anyone, but this is a huge overreaction in my opinion. Remember the swine flu? Has a higher death rather for CONFIRMED cases than that of covid. We didn’t react this way cause we were still struggling after 2008 economic disaster. There was no mass testing, it was just accepted that millions were going to get it and some people would unfortunately die. Now we are on lockdown, people are losing businesses, ways of life etc. And I feel for those who have lost loved ones, not trying to be insensitive. Or maybe I am. I don’t know. But another month of this shit is a stretch
 
99JeepXJ said:
Forgive my insensitivity to anyone who has lost anyone, but this is a huge overreaction in my opinion. Remember the swine flu? Has a higher death rather for CONFIRMED cases than that of covid. We didn’t react this way cause we were still struggling after 2008 economic disaster. There was no mass testing, it was just accepted that millions were going to get it and some people would unfortunately die. Now we are on lockdown, people are losing businesses, ways of life etc. And I feel for those who have lost loved ones, not trying to be insensitive. Or maybe I am. I don’t know. But another month of this shit is a stretch
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Swine flu didn't cause hospitals to be overrun either.
It isn't just about the death rate. The "near death rate" is actually the killer.
 
A report was out yesterday, about the Used car market, collapsing, & the Manufactures it drags down with it. Auctions lots are full, but no auctions. Lease cars, are getting extended, to try to last past the shut down. Trade in value getting crippled. The last few weeks, I've noticed the Freightliner plant, in Mount Holly, is emptying their New truck lots. They were supposed to be in lay-offs, months back, but the Plant seemed to be fully staffed. But now, No more new trucks are rolling out, & since last Friday, the employee lot, has been near empty. Easter vacation, or Layed off ?
 
RatLabGuy said:
Swine flu didn't cause hospitals to be overrun either.
It isn't just about the death rate. The "near death rate" is actually the killer.
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It actually did. Shortage of masks, hospital beds etc were all very real things back then. It wasn’t the focal point due to the economy. Not that I always rely on the govt but all the info is on the cdc website
 
99JeepXJ said:
It actually did. Shortage of masks, hospital beds etc were all very real things back then. It wasn’t the focal point due to the economy. Not that I always rely on the govt but all the info is on the cdc website
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This. The reason we don't have any masks, gowns, or other PPD is that they depleted the national strategic stockpile in 08-09, and never restocked it.

Also, the "near death rate" is no longer a thing. The hospitalization rates are at least an order of magnitude lower than what was expected. Also, we know now that states and countries who didn't lock down have had better outcomes generally than those that did. There's a strong argument to be made that schools should never have closed, because children and younger people (parents) tolerate the virus well, and would have quickly established a herd immunity.
 
rodney eppes said:
A report was out yesterday, about the Used car market, collapsing, & the Manufactures it drags down with it. Auctions lots are full, but no auctions. Lease cars, are getting extended, to try to last past the shut down. Trade in value getting crippled. The last few weeks, I've noticed the Freightliner plant, in Mount Holly, is emptying their New truck lots. They were supposed to be in lay-offs, months back, but the Plant seemed to be fully staffed. But now, No more new trucks are rolling out, & since last Friday, the employee lot, has been near empty. Easter vacation, or Layed off ?
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Wholesale auctions, at least the 4 i go to, are still running. Totally online, but still up and running. I have watched used car prices fall roughly 40% as of a month ago, and have climbed back to almost normal so far this week. I am terrified to buy anything right now with such large price swings.

I can tell you people are not buying used cars right now, at least in this area.
 
junkxj said:
Wholesale auctions, at least the 4 i go to, are still running. Totally online, but still up and running. I have watched used car prices fall roughly 40% as of a month ago, and have climbed back to almost normal so far this week. I am terrified to buy anything right now with such large price swings.

I can tell you people are not buying used cars right now, at least in this area.
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I was looking for a used truck when the CV hit. I'm not buying shit except for food right now.
 
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