Stock market

So then, do I sell now, or hold on a few more days or weeks?
 
Hold. Stock market is for the long-term. It's going to go up, it's going to go down. Not necessarily in that order. You just hope that the ups outweigh the downs over the period you are invested. I think you are more apt to screw yourself, or miss a good upside, if you get in and out, in and out.

Past performance is not indicative of yada yada yada....but over *most* 20-30 year periods you are going to gain waaaay more than in most other available (legal) investments.
 
kaiser715 said:
Hold. Stock market is for the long-term. It's going to go up, it's going to go down. Not necessarily in that order. You just hope that the ups outweigh the downs over the period you are invested. I think you are more apt to screw yourself, or miss a good upside, if you get in and out, in and out.

Past performance is not indicative of yada yada yada....but over *most* 20-30 year periods you are going to gain waaaay more than in most other available (legal) investments.
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Yeah yeah yeah, I get all that. But highest record in 17 years looks more like a peak than the start of a climb. Its legalized gambling anyway...
 
The last time this happened was Dec 31st of 1999. Here are some notable levels of the three indexes following that date:

S&P500
Dec 31st: 1469
Mar 24th: 1527 (+4%)
Sept 1st: 1521 (+3.5%)

DOW:
Dec 31st: 11497
Jan 14th: 11723 (+2%)
Sept 1st: 11239 (-2.3%)
May 18th(2001): 11302 (-1.7%)

NASDAQ:
Dec 31st: 4069
Mar 10th: 5049 (+24%)
Sept 1st: 4234 (+4%)

We all know what happened after that. All three market indexes fell for months until finally bottoming in mid-September of 2001.
 
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Investing legends like Warren Buffet and Jack Bogle will tell you to buy and hold. They say that trying to time the market is a fools errand. I enjoy playing the game and tend to take a little off the top (10-20%) when I feel like things are getting a bit toppy, then put it to work when things bottom (VIX peaking). Nobody knows what is going to happen, but I believe the market will be higher at the end of the year. This is an election year. The market should rally after the election, regardless of who gets elected, and could rally right on past Christmas if the economy continues to improve. However, I won't be surprised if we experience a minor pull back during September or October. I'm currently considering the idea of taking a little off the top (10%) some time in the coming weeks depending on how the markets react over the next couple of weeks.
 
Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell." --Sir John Templeton






 
jeepinmatt said:
So then, do I sell now, or hold on a few more days or weeks?
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Stocks could autopilot to more new highs

From that article:

But the simultaneous new highs in the three major stock indexes has a track record of being a positive event for the market, according to a study by Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial. The last occurrence before Thursday was in 1999, right before the tech bubble burst, sending stocks sharply lower.

Detrick studied that and 147 other instances back to 1979, where the three indexes closed at new highs, and 75 percent of the time the market was higher a year later, for an average gain of 11.9 percent.

"There's one thing that stands out. It happens in clusters. For this to keep happening for the next couple of months is perfectly normal," he said. He noted that the most instances were in 1995, when there were 25 occasions and stocks had one of the strongest years ever, with the S&P up 34 percent.
 
....and following 1979 the inflation rate was 11.3, 13.5, 10.3 ('79,'80,'81). What good are gains if they are offset by inflation, losing purchasing power?
 
kaiser715 said:
....and following 1979 the inflation rate was 11.3, 13.5, 10.3 ('79,'80,'81). What good are gains if they are offset by inflation, losing purchasing power?
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You should have expected this from me, LOL

S&P 500 performance by year:
1979: 11.59%
1980: 25.77%
1981: -9.73%
1982: 14.76%
1983: 17.27%
 
Good years....still in college then...nothing in the market at that time, but had a bunch of CD's...renewed quite a few at 16-17pct.
 
^^^ looks like the market really doesn't care so far.

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Fidiots panic selling today.
 
They'll run it right back up on Monday. New market records by Thursday.



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Yeah, what's the smart course here? Move into stable stuff for a couple days, then aggressive stuff for a few weeks?
 
jeepinmatt said:
Yeah, what's the smart course here? Move into stable stuff for a couple days, then aggressive stuff for a few weeks?
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The question is whether it will continue to tank. Would have (obviously) been better to make that first move earlier.
I suspect it will take more than a couple days to stabilize, mostly international fears.
But I don't know shit about that.
 
Most predictions were calling for a 5-10% initial drop if Trump won. I won't be surprised if the market drops 20+% over the coming months.
 
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Stocks after Trump.jpg
 
Loganwayne said:
they are already predicting another recession by 2018
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They've been predicting that for a couple of years. No change here.

@drkelly - markets are flat. Futures recovered this morning to within a percent and a half, there was a dip on the open that got bought.
 
shawn said:
They've been predicting that for a couple of years. No change here.

@drkelly - markets are flat. Futures recovered this morning to within a percent and a half, there was a dip on the open that got bought.
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I'm pleasantly surprised at the markets reaction so far today. It is the opposite of what I was expecting. The futures were down about 2.5% at 4am this morning. I went 'all in' last Wednesday with the cash I had betting on Hillary winning and markets rising 2-3% immediately. That was the 'smart money' bet last week anyway.

The biotechnology and financials are up big this morning.
 
I have $15k at the ready to toss my buddy's way when he tells me to pull the trigger. He's thinking buying at the bottom with a 10-15% slump over the next couple days...it'll recover in a couple weeks, and then will gain. He's thinking if he picks right, and we time it right, I could legitimately see a 20-25% gain in 2 months. If not, no biggie.
 
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